It’s all about the Sugar

The last couple of days have been pretty heavy, turbulent, I must admit.

Milk!!! Let us look at this peculiar white liquid considered by most especially in India as the Mecca of strength and nutrition. Let’s take a closer look at it. A substance that is provided by a mother, even father in some cases, with the sole aim of providing the necessary nutrition to an infant - a brand new form of life.

Nutrition apart it is used for worship, raw material for various food preparations, etc. etc. It’s such a peaceful liquid so soothing so still, unless brought to boil.
BUT!!! BUT!!! What happens to this same liquid when it curdles - got spoilt, as we so say???? Toxic and not smooth anymore, this sick yellow substance becomes harmful to any and all. It disgusts, sends one grabbing one's nose.

However, the story does not end here...Oh my God you mean there is more???? Yes, indeed a lot more...Add a bit of sugar, and flavour if desired, and heat it till it dries up and you get one of the tastiest and most yummy sweets...

LIFE, I have realised is just like this milk my friend. We all start of life at a very peaceful, innocent pace completely untouched by this world and its ilk’s. Enough has been written about the trials and trivials of life and hence would not go down that boring lane once again. We all have our own struggles and battles to fight but the point is that we all have that moment in life that leads us to that curdling, we just need to know where to get that sugar from, not complain and complain and complain. Snap! that’s it, it’s so simple...I can find the sugar...no sweat...I’ll have a drink, I’ll go shopping, I’ll live life up!!

It is not about blaming the world for your ill’s...it’s not about the politicians, the terrorists or anything else. Escape routes, for redeeming ourselves of our own failure and frustrations, that’s all they are...

Meaning!!! We all need to find our own meaning of life...Back to the very basics of life...
Who am I?? What am I?? Why am I?? What do I want to do?? Where & When can I get fulfilment??

The sugar will sort itself out...

But then again to each his self...

We the Mighty

I the mighty always differed
The establishment – People; The other side – Life
Never the pre-conditioned, never the conventional one
I the mighty never feared

Till one day not so long ago I shuddered, I feared
I stared death in its eye and walked away
I thought I had emerged from it till 26/11 devastated
Having learnt to treasure life, I thought I would never fear
But then their brutality, their insanity, their lack of remorse
I feared!!!

But it was not fear; it was something far beyond fear
It was hurt, it was anxiety of not being able to do anything, it was pain
It was pain of the deepest kind, the crippling kind
But what could I do, a mute spectator a hapless bystander
Resolve!!!

Resolve to fight this pain
Resolve to live life free of the pain, the fear, the chains
Thwart the very purpose of their madness
Live life through my purposeful & just deeds and not mere words
Not like the irresponsible socialite, the politician, the fourth estate

They bore, they repel, they disgust
I the mighty will live, I the mighty will soar
I the mighty will roar, I the mighty will cure
I the mighty will know No fear, No pain, Only gain

But dare to imagine the effect if it were not just Me but We
We the mighty will live, We the mighty will soar
We the mighty will roar, We the mighty will cure
We the mighty will know No fear, No pain, Only gain

Obliterate the irresponsible socialite, the politician, the fourth estate,
Obliterate Muslim/Hindu terrorism,
Obliterate Pakistan sponsored terrorism,
Obliterate 9/11, 26/11.....

We the mighty will roar, We the mighty will cure

The world is round I said

They asked me if I am fine
I asked me if I am fine
They asked me if I am happy
I asked me if I am happy

The world is round I said...

The world is growing they said
The world is only retarding I said
Everything is peaceful they said
Nothing is peaceful I said

The world is round I said...

I am bitter, I am hurt they said
I am peaceful I said
I am effected, I am cynical they said
I am happy I said

The world is still round I said...

And I thought

Do I love life I thought
Do I love where I have reached I thought
But where have I reached I thought
I really need to think I thought

And I thought...

I have worked hard, I have grown fast
Have I worked hard enough? Have I grown fast enough?
I have partied enough, I have slammed around enough
Have I partied enough? Have I slammed around enough?

And I thought...

Why do I think so much I thought?
Why don’t I just chill I thought
But then I do chill I thought
My problem is I’m never content I thought

And I thought...

She gave me ‘ME’

She met me, She loved me, She made love to me
She met me, She loved me, She made love to me
She was the best that can or could be
She gave me ‘ME’

She gave me ‘ME’, but what about me
I met her, I loved her, I made love to her
I met her, I loved her, I made love to her

But, I wasn’t the best that can or could be...

I was the rising star, the talk of town
I was the dream, the open skies
I was the romantic, the one with flowers

But, I wasn’t the best that can or could be...

But no more,
I will be the best that can or could be
I will break free, dream our dream
I will fly free and take her with me

I will always be missed

I’ve seen the high
I’ve seen the sigh
I’ve seen the tryst
I’ve seen the twist

I’ve never been missed...

I’ve seen love
I’ve seen hurt
I’ve seen pleasure
I’ve seen pain

I’ve never been missed...

I’ve seen existence
But I did not exist
I’ve seen influence
But I did not influence

I’ve never been missed...

I live
I dominate
I love
I fly

I will always be missed...

The 21st Century ‘Should I’

Should I spend or should I not spend?
Should I vacation or should I not vacation?
Should I Invest or should I not Invest?
Should I live or should I not live?

Ask the powers to be....

Should I eat or should I not eat?
Should I breathe or should I not breathe?
Should I produce or should I not produce?
Should I live or should I not live?

Ask the powers to be...

Should I drive growth or should I not drive growth?
Should I take decisions or should I not take decisions?
Should I sign or should I not sign?
Should I live or should I not live?

Ask the powers to be...

Should I be I or should I not be I?

Ask the powers to be...

Aamchi Mumbai

Mumbai is the glamour of Bollywood cinema, cricket on the maidans (open grassed areas), bhelpuri (a spicy sweet Mumbai snack) on the beach of Chowpatty, outstanding colonial architecture and red double-decker buses

Today Mumbai
• Covers an area of about 437.71 Sq.Km.
• Merger of 7 islands in city area and 4 islands in suburbs.
• Houses about 11.9 Million people (Census 2001)
• Population density of about 27,209 people per Sq.Km. (Census 2001)

Though once dominated by the cotton textile industry, Mumbai's economic base is now diversified and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region accounts for about US$ 15 billion out of Mahrashtra’s economy (NSDP) of about USD 37 billion. Textiles still remain important, but the city's industries include IT, Telecommunications, petrochemicals, automobile manufacturing, metals, electronics, engineering, food processing. Approximately 40% of the capital investment in Large and Medium industries in Maharashtra are cornered by Mumbai. More specialized economic activities are diamond cutting, computers, and movie making (in sheer numbers, Mumbai, or "Bollywood," produces more movies than any other city in the world, including Hollywood).
Mumbai, formerly known as Bombay, is the financial capital of India, contributing greatly to the Indian economy. The city accounts for over 10% of factory employment, 40% of income tax collections, 60% of customs duty collections, 20% of central excise tax collections, 40% of foreign trade and INR 40,000 crore (US $1 billion) in corporate taxes. Some of the key sectors contributing to the city’s economy are:

Financial & Commercial Centre - Mumbai, which has a stated aspiration of becoming a world-class city in the next 10-15 years, has already been ranked tenth among the world's biggest centres of commerce in terms of the financial flow volumes by a survey compiled by MasterCard Worldwide. Mumbai alone hosts two of the largest of the 131 approved SEZs in Maharashtra with a total area of 14, 000 hectares. Post the launch of Gulf Finance House promoted over US$10 billion Mumbai Economic Development Zone the city now also boasts of hosting the state and country’s only Economic Development Zone. Additionally, Maharashtra’s pro-investor and pro-industry policies coupled with its strategic position within key business and industry sectors in the country, has also made the state of Maharashtra and Mumbai the largest recipient of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into the country.
Mumbai today also boasts of
• Largest City Rail & Road Networks
• Amongst the largest trading ports (JNPT & MPT combined) in the country. In fact JNPT has been acknowledged as the busiest port in the country
• The country’s largest planned retail outlay and India's biggest networks in the food, clothing and hospitality industry initiatives
• Headquarters of a number of Indian financial institutions such as the Bombay Stock Exchange, Reserve Bank of India, National Stock Exchange, the Mint
• Headquarters of numerous Indian companies such as the Tata Group, Essel Group, Vedanta Resources and Reliance

Gems & Jewellery – Mumbai’s contribution towards Gems & Jewellery has risen from INR 50 billion in 1990 – 91 to INR 450 billion in 2003-04. Additionally SEEPZ (a Special Economic Zone located in Mumbai) alone handled import of INR 20 billion (2003-04) of rough diamonds, gold bars, stones, C&P diamonds, silver bars and platinum.

Leather: Mumbai, with its comfortable raw material base, skilled labour and already well established leather/leather goods industry, is and will continue to be a major centre for leather and leather products in Western India
IT & ITES: Mumbai is at the forefront of Maharashtra’s IT/ITES thrust that has now spread to other major cities in the state such as Pune etc. The city also boasts of some of the finest educational institutions in the country ensuring a steady supply of trained technical manpower for the IT/ITES industry. The state accounts for more than 30% of India’s software exports, 35% of the country’s PC’s and 32% of internet subscribers

Textiles: The largest contributor to Mumbai’s economy in the past the textile sector, which also currently accounts for 27% of India’s total exports, in the city still continues to play an important role

Entertainment Sector – The acknowledged centre of Indian film industry, especially ‘Bollywood’, Mumbai, which also hosts the head offices of various media groups such as ZEE TV, Times Group, Sony, UTV, Rediff, etc. is also one of the largest centers for Print, Television, Radio and other media related industries. The city also boasts of one of the largest number of committed retail space and is well poised to emerge as the retail capital of the country.

Furthermore, guided by the vision of transforming Mumbai into a world-class city the government has already initiated a slew of mega development projects. Besides the state urban development department and the civic body, agencies such as the Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation, Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority, JNPT and state pollution control board are involved in implementation of the projects which include
• Bandra-Worli sea link
• Sewri-Nhava sea link
• Mithi river project
• Eastern freeway (through JNPT)
• Brimstowad
• Mumbai urban transport and integrated development projects
• Dharavi redevelopment, the largest such programme in the world
• Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission schemes
• New Mumbai International Airport

In addition to the government projects the private-sector is also leading an array of mega development projects currently under way in Mumbai including
• Maha Mumbai SEZ & Navi Mumbai SEZ with a combined development value in excess of INR 140 billion
• GFH Mumbai Economic development Zone
• Badra - Kurla Convention Centre
• Versova – Ghatkopar Metro Project
• Re-development of the current Chatrapati Shivaji International Airport

Mumbai is also home to the Bhabha Atomic Research Center, and most of India's specialized, technical industries, having a modern industrial infrastructure and vast, skilled human resources. Rising venture capital firms, start-ups and established brands work in aerospace, optical engineering, medical research, information technology, computers and electronic equipment of all varieties, ship-building and salvaging, renewable energy and power.

Last but not the least Mumbai also houses the Western fleet of the Indian Navy, which is key to India's maritime security.

The India Growth Story: White Elephant to Dancing Elephant

“India is a developed country as far as intellectual capital is concerned”
Jack Welch, former chief of General Electric, the world’s second largest company, made this remark at the beginning of the new millennium when he was still at the helm of General Electric.

‘India will emerge as the third largest economy in two decades and the world’s second largest economy by 2050, behind China but exceeding the US’
As per projections made by the world’s top investment bank Goldman Sachs in their 2001 research paper entitled “Dreaming with BRICs: the Path to 2050.”
Now, as India enters its 62nd year of independence, the country is well on the path to leveraging its vast intellectual capital and transforming itself into a global knowledge economy powerhouse - having already clocked $1 trillion in gross domestic product (GDP) during 2006-07.

India has overshot all expectations to clock several consecutive years of high-speed growth. It has been one of the stars of global economics in recent years, growing 9.2% in 2007 and 9.6% in 2006. Growth has been supported by markets reforms, huge inflows of FDI, rising foreign exchange reserves, both an IT and real estate boom, and a flourishing capital market. There are other facets of India as well that speak volumes about its resurgence as a growing and emerging economy between 1990 and now.
· GDP grew from Rs.5,150 billion to Rs.42,830 billion ($1.7 trillion)
· Per capita income almost doubled from US$ 390 to US$ 740. It is further expected to increase to US$ 2000 by 2016-17 and US$ 4000 by 2025
· Foreign exchange reserves jumped from barely US$1 billion to US$ 310 billion
· Inflows from foreign funds rose from US$ 1 million to over US$ 60 billion
· Foreign direct investment shot up from US$ 97 million to US$ 25 billion
· Indian companies, such as Tata’s, ADAG, RIL, Birla’s, Suzlon, Wipro, TCS, Infosys, Bharat Forge, Sterlite (Vedanta), ONGC Videsh, Ranbaxy, etc., have rapidly enhanced their global footprint with some very high profile acquisitions including Corus & JLR by Tata Group last year itself
o The country’s outward foreign direct investments rose by 29.6 per cent to $17.4 billion in 2007-08
· Exports jumped from US$ 18.1 billion to US$ 155 billion
· India has also overtaken the United States, with as many as 286 million subscribers, and ranks just below China, in terms of telephone subscriptions. India expects to easily achieve the target of 500 million by 2010
· With 33.7 percent average annual growth in knowledge-intensive software and services industry over the last few years, its revenues have gone from a mere US$ 12.4 billion in 2002-03 to US$ 52 billion in 2007-08
· Food grain output rose from 176 million tonnes to a record 230 million tonnes
Furthermore, India has also scored very well on other key socio-economic fronts. It has successfully
- Maintained electoral democracy
- Banished the spectre of famines
- Reduced absolute poverty by more than half
- Dramatically improved literacy
- Vastly improved health conditions
- Emerged as a global player in information technology, business process outsourcing, telecommunications, and pharmaceuticals
- Now emerged as the world’s fourth largest economy in purchasing power parity terms

On the back of 9.6 per cent growth April-December 2006-07, GDP grew by 8.9 per cent during April-December 2007-08 indicating that the growth process however continues apace, in spite of the rapidly changing domestic and international economic landscape triggered by an anticipated slowdown in the American economy and spiraling oil-prices, far out-stripping many of India’s Western counterparts on multiple fronts.

- Food grain output grew by 4.6 per cent in 2007-08, nearly four times the average annual growth of 1.2 per cent between 1990 and 2007
- Overall industrial production grew by 8.3 per cent during 2007-08. Significantly, manufacturing sector grew at the rate of 8.7 per cent
- Services grew by 10.4 per cent in April-December 2007, on the back of 11.4 per cent during the corresponding period in 2006-07
- Manufacturing grew by 8.7 per cent during April-February 2007-08, on the back of 12.5 per cent growth during 2006-07
- Core infrastructure sector continued its growth rate recording 5.6 per cent growth in 2007-08
- While exports grew by 23.02 per cent during 2007-08, imports increased by 27.01 per cent in the same period
- Money Supply (M3) has grown by a robust 20.7 per cent growth (year-on-year) as of end-March 2008, compared to 21.5 per cent last year
- Fiscal and revenue deficit decreased by 13.5 per cent and 33.3 per cent, respectively, during April-February 2007-08 over corresponding period last year

Another significant aspect has been the broad-based nature of the growth process. While new economy industries like Information Technology and biotechnology have been growing around 30 per cent, significantly old economy sectors like steel have also been major contributors in the Indian growth process. For example, India has moved up two places to become the fifth largest steel producer in the world. And with its manufacturing and service sectors on a searing growth path, Lehman Brothers Asia estimates India to grow by as much as 10 per cent every year in the next decade. Expected Trade deals with the Gulf Co-operation Council (a grouping of six Middle Eastern states), the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the EU, will only help further strengthen this possibility.

Thus, one can safely state that where till the beginning of this decade India was considered nothing more than an ageing White Elephant, in the global economic context, it has successfully emerged as a metamorphical equivalent of a Crouching Elephant. But, for India to further transform itself into a nimble footed highly agile and fast Dancing Elephant, and as has been rightly pointed out by Cheryl Grey in her article titled ‘Brazil, Russia, India and China: Forces to Be Reckoned With’, the biggest challenge that India faces is on the basic infrastructure problems, such as poor roads and unreliable power supplies.




However, the outlook for infrastructure investment in India is very positive. Population growth, urbanisation and the demands of an increasingly consumer-driven society have placed pressure on existing infrastructure in a range of sectors, including electricity generation, telecommunications, airports, water and sanitation. Though India already boasts of the largest and most profitable railway network in the world, one of the largest road networks in the world, has a power generation capacity of 144,564.97 MW and is the second fastest growing mobile phone network in the world, a lot more would be required to maintain targeted growth. For example, as per the government’s own power mission India would require its installed generation capacity to touch 200,000 MW by 2012, as power requirement is expected to double by 2020 to 400,000MW.

The Indian Federal & State governments have actively initiated privatisation of infrastructure assets or have sought private sector financing of new infrastructure projects with the goal of reducing debt, allowing market forces to determine the most efficient means of infrastructure financing, improving efficiency and providing more visible benefits to communities. They have actively initiated and overseen the process of creation of highly attractive Infrastructure asset classed and opportunities right from the early Export Processing Zones (EPZ) and Industrial Clusters which later evolved into Integrated Townships, STPIs, SEZ’s etc. On the policy front the government has also incentivized the private sector significantly with an aim of enhancing their participation in meeting the infrastructure needs of the country, eg. SEZ Policy, Special Township Policy, Tourism Policy, Industrial Policy, SITP, FDI Policy and now the EDZ policy of which the GFH India project will be the first example.

Furthermore, it has been estimated that India will require at least 3-4 per cent equivalent of GDP spending on infrastructure to maintain an 8-10 growth rate, with almost $500 billion of this investment coming from private sector equity investment in infrastructure development over the next five years.

The Infrastructure Investment Opportunity in India has never been better.

Just A Thought

Does it ever bother you that your dreams and aspirations are truely kingsize but you are limited by circumstance? How frustrating that could be? Imagine that and then add to it the fact that very few would actually understand your frustration.

What if you were working really hard and your work had been appreciated and hence you are where you are but what if in the process your bosses have started taking you for granted and though you have now enetered into a different level of compensation and perks you feel absolutly frustrated professionally? A neo commercial slave if I may say so.

What would you do if you were in a position such as this and am sure we all come across such a situation every once in a while? Would you have the guts to call it quits?? Though it is very brave to say that am not going to tollerate any shit and will just give up, in reality would you be able to do so?

Well after loads of thinking and introspection, I am convinced that if ever I were faced with such a situation I will definetly quit, no two ways about it. However, given my responsibilities with my family etc I will first secure another worthy position before doing so.

Well by now you must be wondering why this negative line of thought when I have just moved back to India and landed what many would call such a plumb assignment. The answer is simple in the recent past I did come to a situation which was similar but thankfully I could talk my way through it and avoid any drastic measures.

Hope the situation stays the same going forward!!!

Cheers

Another step towards energy mitigation

Tata Motors is taking giant strides and making history for itself. First the Landrover-Jaguar deal, then the world’s cheapest car and now it is also set to introduce the car that runs on air, compressed air to be specific.

With fuel prices touching nearly $150 per barrel, it is about time we heard some breakthrough !
India’s largest automaker Tata Motors is set to start producing the world’s first commercial air-powered vehicle. The Air Car, developed by ex-Formula One engineer Guy Nègre for Luxembourg-based MDI, uses compressed air, as opposed to the gas-and-oxygen explosions of internal-combustion models, to push its engine’s pistons. Some 6000 zero-emissions Air Cars are scheduled to hit Indian streets in August of 2008.

The Air Car, called the MiniCAT could cost around Rs. 3,50,000 ($ 8177) in India and would have a range of around 300 km between refuels.

The cost of a refill would be about Rs. 85 ($ 2). Tata motors also plans to launch the world’s cheapest car, Tata Nano priced famously at One lakh rupees by October.
The MiniCAT which is a simple, light urban car, with a tubular chassis that is glued not welded and a body of fiberglass powered by compressed air. Microcontrollers are used in every device in the car, so one tiny radio transmitter sends instructions to the lights, indicators etc.
There are no keys - just an access card which can be read by the car from your pocket.

According to the designers, it costs less than 50 rupees per 100Km (about a tenth that of a petrol car). Its mileage is about double that of the most advanced electric car (200 to 300 km or 10 hours of driving), a factor which makes a perfect choice in cities where the 80% of motorists drive at less than 60Km. The car has a top speed of 105 kmph. Refilling the car will, once the market develops, take place at adapted petrol stations to administer compressed air. In two or three minutes, and at a cost of approximately 100 rupees, the car will be ready to go another 200-300 kilometers.

As a viable alternative, the car carries a small compressor which can be connected to the mains (220V or 380V) and refill the tank in 3-4 hours. Due to the absence of combustion and, consequently, of residues, changing the oil (1 litre of vegetable oil) is necessary only every 50,000Km.] The temperature of the clean air expelled by the exhaust pipe is between 0-15 degrees below zero, which makes it suitable for use by the internal air conditioning system with no need for gases or loss of power.

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The real reason why stock markets are crashing

M R Venkatesh

June 30, 2008
In a way it captures the irony of our times. Isn't it a bit strange that Saudi Arabia, the perceived beneficiary of the relentless oil price hike, should host a summit expressing 'concern' on the rising oil prices?This high-profile summit was held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, last week after crude prices more than doubled over the past twelve months, stoking inflation and hurting economies across continents, ostensibly to diagnose the problem and possibly prescribe solutions.

This meeting was a congregation of oil producing and consuming countries to discuss the biggest challenge to the world economy since the World War II. Much less provide solutions to the issue of global inflation, the summit exposed serious fault lines that exist between major players even on the fundamental issue of arriving at a consensus on what causes the problem in the first place."Given the vital importance of petroleum to modern life, the global nature of the oil markets and the far ranging social, political and economic impacts of high prices and market volatility, we all have a stake in this conversation," Ali bin Ibrahim Al-Naimi, the Saudi petroleum minister, said. "The current market conditions are in the interest of neither the producers nor the consumers, and none of us can be content with the status quo," he added.

Reiterating the arguments put forth by the Saudi minister, a summit working paper reportedly called for action to "improve transparency and regulation of financial markets through measures to capture more data on index fund activity and to examine cross exchange inter-actions in the crude market."In fact this is the predominant view of most consumer countries, including India. But in direct contrast to the concerns expressed by many players in the oil market, US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman concluded -- even before the summit -- that ". . . there is no evidence that we can find that speculators are driving futures prices. It is clear that the financial markets have seen unprecedented movement of capital into commodities in recent years. Our view is that this capital is following the market upward, it is not leading that movement."

Importantly, Bodman went on to add: "Fundamentally tight market conditions in our view are the major driver of the dramatic price increases that we have seen over the last five years, and particularly in recent months."Crucial questions follow: if the current price is neither in the interest of the producers or consumers -- as the Saudi minister observed -- then, who is the end beneficiary of this relentless price rise? And even if we forget oil for a moment, is it not a fact that there has been a relentless price hike in virtually every commodity that is traded globally?So is there a demand-supply mismatch in all commodities across continents, as Bodman observed in the case of oil? Are China and India, with their robust growth, creating relentless pressure on the global commodities markets and thereby causing runaway inflation? Or is there something more to it than meets the eye?The impact of the Index Speculators

These questions were brilliantly, factually and logically answered by Michael Masters, managing member of Masters Capital Management, in a testimony before the United States Senate Committee recently.Emphatically stating that institutional investors (comprising corporate and government pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, university endowments and other institutional investors) -- whom he terms 'Index Speculators' -- are contributing significantly to food and energy price inflation, Masters analyses the extant global inflation phenomenon in far greater detail and from a macro-economic perspective, perhaps unmatched by anyone else on this subject in recent times.What is interesting in Masters' testimony is that he zeroes in on the crux of the issue straight away. Pointing out to the fact that never before have "investment majors had considered seriously investing in commodities futures markets as viable," Masters points out to the recent yet tectonic shift in the investment strategies of these players.

Correlating to the increase in the investment allocation to commodities index from $13 billion in 2003 to about $260 billion in March 2008, Masters points out to the resultant price increase of 25 commodities by an average of 183 per cent in this period.Further, rubbishing the view that relentless consumption in China was the cause for the demand-supply mismatch that had led to the price increase, Masters points out that annual increase in Chinese demand of 920 million barrels for petroleum since 2003 till date has more or less matched by the demand by Index Speculators in the same period -- a fact that is virtually un-debated by analysts. Naturally, Masters opens up a new paradigm in attempting to link the accumulation of commodities by these Index Speculators and the relentless price increase in such commodities globally.The following Table gives out the commodity purchases by Index Speculators during the past five years:

Masters does not stop there. Taking exception to the standard reply of economists on diversion of corn to ethanol production to be the reason for the rise in the prices of corn, he points out that institutional investors have stockpiled enough to potentially fuel the entire United States' ethanol industry at full capacity for an entire year!Turning to wheat, he points out that the current wheat stockpile of Index Speculators is enough to supply every American citizen with all the bread, pasta and baked goods they can eat for the next two years!Economists ignore collective psychologyMost economists believe that price and demand are inversely related. But in real world, it need not be so. That is because economists do not take into account the impact of collective psychology, which is difficult to predict. For instance, when prices rise, more people are tempted to buy more shares of that particular company in anticipation of greater price increases. Economists rationalise the same as 'healthy speculation' which is 'vital' for the orderly functioning of the markets. When the prices of stocks move up rapidly it is termed as a 'boom.'Strangely, when the same principles are applied to commodities it is termed as inflation! As the cliche goes, why not rename inflation as steel boom or oil boom, especially when similar financial instruments and rules are at play? Naturally, in the absence of a clear understanding of the impact of collective psychology, classical solutions don't work with new investors who are insensitive to prices and continue to buy even when the prices increase. After all, the net effect of all this has been to elevate commodities normally destined for consumption into an investment category by hoarding these commodities. This explains the price spiral as demand of these commodities for investment purposes far exceeds the normal supply.What adds fat to the fire is that when prices increase, Index Speculators benefit. This tendency is in direct contrast to the normal speculator who remains price sensitive. Strangely, as prices increase, the allocation of the Index Speculators too increases as they are virtually insensitive to any increase in risks as well as prices.The following table captures the resultant increase in the prices of commodity futures prices increases between 2003 and 2008.Toxic in Jeddah, nectar in New YorkIn effect, this is the new paradigm. Classical economists, trained in traditional methods to fight inflation, are no wonder finding their measures ineffective and are flummoxed by the turn of events. This explains the accelerating rate at which commodity prices are increasing globally.And, as Masters rightly points out, there is a crucial distinction between traditional speculators and Index Speculators. While traditional speculators provide liquidity by both buying and selling futures, Index Speculators never sell. Therefore, 'they consume liquidity and provide zero benefit to the futures markets.' Thus, today Index Speculators occupy 40 per cent of the long positions, while traditional speculators and physical hedgers occupy 27 per cent and 33 per cent, respectively. This paradigm is significantly different than what was prevailing even a few years ago where only the other two players -- physical hedgers and traditional speculators -- dominated.That explains why the Saudi King is worried as his country is no longer the beneficiary of oil price rise. Neither are consuming countries. Economists, oblivious of this paradigm shift, blame everyone from China to India for this conundrum.In the process they strain every sinew to explain the demand-supply mismatch when none exists, forgetting that it is the Index Speculators who are responsible for this price rise.Economics is often held to be a trans-national discipline implying what is good economics for Americans must be good for Saudis. But times have changed. No wonder, this speculation by the new breed of Index Speculators is held to be toxic in Jeddah.How, this is nectar in New York, London and perhaps in some other financial centres too.To conclude:Rising commodity prices erodes the profits of corporates; Naturally as this fuels inflation, interest rates are hiked globally (except in the US). Interest rate hikes in turn acts as a disincentive for stock markets; and Finally, increased allocation to commodities by Index Speculators makes returns from such investments far more attractive than from stocks.Investing in stock markets it seems is passe for now. No wonder stock markets are crashing.The author is a Chennai-based chartered accountant. He can be contacted at mrv1000@rediffmail.com

Back to Aamchi Mumbai

Its been a real good weekend. Have not stepped out of the house even a bit, just spending time with my lovely wife Minal and adorable son Evaan. Reached home back from a relatively long trip to KL and then Dubai only on early Friday morning. Was too tired and did not go to work, almost slept till the evening and then started working. Could not do much and decided to leave it for Saturday. Saturday morning was just work, work and work. Finally finished the strategy presentation I was working on for this Bahrain client and on the communication strategy for the Justice Party in Malaysia.

Having got work out of the way we all had a jolly good time last nite. Minal got a bit tipsy with half a glass of black dog and her sister Jaya maxed the dumb charades session we were playing with her 'Anda Upna Upna'. We finally slept at around 2.30. Utpal stayed over and was responsible for making breakfast. I'm telling you my wife and sister-in-law are going to turn him into a seasoned cook. Lunch was an amazing Batti party. Waz amazing given the awesome rainy weather. So in short have been having a really kewl and peaceful fun filled weekend, after quite sometime though.

But what actually got me logged on today was this ongoing global debate on fuel price rise (over $ 130 now) and its impact on the Indian economy. After having held it back for so long the Indian government finally raised the prices marginally bringing about some relief to the oil companies, much to the charging of the Left who are just looking for a credible excuse to exit the UPA and cut their so called losses. One thing is sure this price rise is definitely going to increase commodity and all other prices across board. Don't ask me what this will do the inflation which is already over 8.2 per cent, what with a hardening of interest rates just around the corner.

My point being that economists have been drawing up all different scenario's based on which side of the fence they lie left, right or centre. To me the solution is not very complex. The bane of the entire issue is crippling fuel prices which has already started even adversely effecting other sectors and spoiling the wonderful growth story we have been enjoying thus far. Why not just minimize or try and completely eliminate this source from the picture. All that needs to be done is that

Step I
Oil companies need to immediately switch to LPG/CNG as a source for auto and other fuel. This can easily be done as there are huge reserves of gas that can be commercially exploited. The only thing that needs to be done is that conversion kits need to be installed across the country on a war footing

Step II
We need to start commercially exploiting other bio-fuels such palm oil and oil from the Jathropa plant. CISR has said that this can be easily done as the plant is grown very fast in arid areas which our country has in plenty. the technology has also been extensively tested on cars including the ultra refined Merc.

Step III
Along with bio-fuels we also need to start exploiting alternate sources of energy such as solar, wind and hydro electricity. We have the necessary technology and know-how we just need to step up the game.

Step IV
Our nuclear energy programme should be made into our central energy source. Why are we so focused on Uranium. The entire scientific community has openly stated that Thorium, which is available in abundance in India and is also a non-fissile source, can be effectively used. The use of this fuel will not just eliminate the need for a 123 deal with the US (something that has caused a lot of heart burn and to me an utter waste of tax-payers money), but would also reduce our energy import bill ten-fold.

Imagine the combined impact of all the above on our fuel security and the overall national economy. Imagine an Indian budget where fuel imports accounted for only 20-30 or even 10-20 per cent of the total imports. Its not impossible guys, its extremely feasible if only our great politicians / technocrats have the will and show some direction.

I just wish that there are some other souls like me who think the same way and somewhere down the line we can start collectively articulating this philosophy, igniting a positive change.

Think we have had enough of heavy stuff for the day so will log of and get back with some lighter stuff tomorrow.

Cheers

Malaysia - A paradise going sour

One of the most interesting conversations that I came about in recent times was as recent as this morning. Here I am in Kaula Lumpur bragging about the place to all my friends, telling them how wonderful it was and how green the whole place is. Believe me it is one of the greenest places I have come across and the infrastructure is really amazing. And then I meet this gentleman from Dr Ibrahim's office who apologizes to me for the pollution, stating that the place in KL where we currently are is one of the most polluted and that the infrastructure was also really bad, and I am like thinking to myself - Dude what is wrong with this guy but this is one of the most wonderful places I have been too.

Anywayz having digested that when I started talking to a host of people right down to the cab drivers on what they think about Malaysia, the government and what was going on in general the real story and the real reason for the growing discontent and dissent started coming to the fore. Malaysia once a truly great economy is slowly but steadily deteriorating and slipping back to the dark ages be it on the fronts of education, sport, economic freedom, growth, etc. Today Malaysia which at one point of time was ranked as high as 4 or 5 on the global economic freedom index today is ranked even below some of the least developed countries. The education system sucks and the process of re-distribution of wealth going completely awry has ensured that the billions of petro dollars earned is being retained by only a select few and not peculating down to the Masses nor is it being used to better infrastructure - even today there are many regions within Malaysia that still do not have basic infrastructure such as drinking water or electricity.

But the most obvious manifestation of this plight is in the media which though constitutionally being a free press is one of the most state controlled and un-impressive media that I have ever come across. I thought some of the Middle East media was backward but the media in Malaysia is way worse then them, even the Nepalese media is far more advanced.

Work apart am now planning to enjoy Malaysia a bit and go do a lot of sight seeing tomorrow or day-after when am relatively free. Will post a lot of pictures. But for now got to rush as am going to meet with a gentleman who is not only known as the true voice of democracy in Asia but one who also most definitely will be the next PM of this fascinating country - Dr Anwar Ibrahim.

Cheers

False Commitments

Definitely Boss, Will call you back in the next 15 minutes and give you a complete update.

That was at 11.00 am, now it is 12.15 pm and still no signs of an update forget getting another notification saying that the work is on and it would take slightly longer.

Why do people always make false commitments like this it is not just so irritating but also is a complete mockery of an individuals time, through his/her entire schedule out of gear.

Interestingly this has come from an agency that I know has not delivered on its promise and is now trying to buy time so that they do not have to confront me on the coverage or lack of coverage if i may say so.

Having spent so many years in Client Servicing the one thing I have learnt is never to lie or overstate/over-promise delivery. To the contrary it is even prudent and advisable to be realistic and understate a bit as then delivery is always better than expected and also permits the client to plan accordingly. So what if I may loose some business. A disgruntled Client is far more dangerous and harmful to one's image and hence its better to be honest and rather not have the client in the first place than promise him the world and then not deliver.

Anywayz enough of that work bit. The good news is that one of my best friends Sean is finally getting married and Minal, Evaan and I am all ready to go down to Chennai on 25th for his wedding. Am sure we will have a blast especially given the fact that will be meeting all my college pals after so long. Also this would be both Minal and Evaan's first trip to Chennai. We also plan to go down to my college. This would be the first time since I passed out that I will be going back to college and hence am really excited about it.

K now got to get back to work. Will write in soon.

Cheers

Public Relations - Entering The First Quadrant

Why haven’t I got front page coverage?

What’s this? No picture!!!

I want excellent coverage for my new project/investment but no, I can’t reveal any numbers.

Haven’t we, as practicing Public Relations (PR) professionals, heard these questions ad nauseum throughout our working lives?

Is this what PR is all about? Or are we completely misreading the equation??

Over the decades PR has evolved as one of our most abused professions, one that very few actually understand. Even today, with minor exceptions, PR is nothing more than media relations – it hasn’t really moved beyond the rather unbecoming image of ‘wining and dining’. The fresher joining PR today is still first drafted into the not-so-desired ‘back-end tasks’ - monitoring coverage, scanning, making reports, contacting mediapersons, and other such prosaic details. Not that these bread-and-butter issues aren’t important, but there’s little scope of being taken through the basics of research, communication, branding models, and so on. That’s not the immediate business of PR, the experts would say.

It’s unfortunate, but that’s what the PR scenario is today, not just in the nascent economies of the South but even in the so-called knowledge-based economies of the developed world. The only difference is that the latter have evolved sophisticated packaging techniques that give PR a sheen that is not evident closer home.

PR is stuck in a time warp, as it were. The textbook definition of the product development cycle places PR permanently within the fourth quadrant – Marketing. At best, it sometimes gets elevated to the third quadrant – Development.

But things aren’t completely in the Dark Ages. There is a glimmer of hope, if we look at the examples of a few corporate entities and brands such as P&G, TISCO, HP, GE, Infosys, among others. They are showing the way forward for PR in today’s brave new world of globalized and integrated markets. These New Age corporations see PR as a highly evolved concept that is integral to their very functioning.

Cases in point include P&G’s ‘Bald Women’ campaign or TISCO’s CSR programme. Free market access, enhanced competition at all levels and a highly complex global communication fabric are, indeed, forcing a re-look at the very definition of PR.
Our own experience in the Middle East also reflects this new reality. One of our esteemed clients in the region is today listed among the largest and fastest growing Shariah-compliant investment banks at the global level, having built up a network of large business clusters that would be the envy of even the grand-dads in the business.
All within the span of a couple of years.

This client has no hesitation in acknowledging the key role played by PR in their evolution, even positioning it as one of their four key strengths in an internal SWOT analysis. The senior management, beginning with the Chairman and CEO, pays personal attention to this faculty, being involved at the planning stage itself. They have taken PR into the first quadrant of the product development cycle, making it part and parcel of the ideation stage itself. Surely, there’s a message in here somewhere for the PR gurus of today.

We take pride in the fact that a young agency like ours has been able to effect this transition in mindspace in what is literally the PR backwaters - an under-developed market that would figure as ‘Third World’ in today’s communications context. A direct outcome of our high level of involvement is that this Shariah-compliant banking project has had absolutely no problem in establishing itself as one of the foremost of its kind from the word go, complete with endorsements from the global who’s-who in this sector.

Our experience shows that a window of opportunity beckons the PR world today. PR need no longer be the poor cousin in the communications space. It can hold its own and even go one better than its better known siblings in advertising and brand consultancy.

If we look closer at how and why this shift to the ideation stage has taken place in our example, the answer lies in two simple words - ‘Service’ and ‘Competition’. The rapid growth of the services sector and product linked services and the exponential rise in competition in a globalised economy that envelopes both developed and developing nations has seen a shift in corporate focus to the magical word ‘Relationship’. Not only has this become the central agenda of boardroom discussions but it has also raised some very new psychometric and practical challenges that companies are finding increasingly difficult to address through conventional channels.

So how does PR fit in here? It would be prudent to take a second look at the very definition of PR at this stage. Put simply PR is the art of optimally managing relationships with the various target publics or interest groups. Until now, this definition was construed to merely mean media relations and government lobbying. The new dispensation redefines PR. In order to effectively manage relationships with various publics one needs to not only understand the psychographics of these target groups but also ensure that all products, processes and initiatives are designed keeping these relationships in mind. It’s not the other way around. That’s how PR stands redefined. Therein lies your answer.

Companies that have begun to understand this truth and the true essence of PR are taking up leadership positions the world over. They view PR not just as a cost effective alternative to advertising. Some good examples include the mobile phone holder and built-in mobile charger facilities introduced in Indian two-wheelers or even the multiple colour options being offered by two-wheeler manufacturers. Some professional within these companies who understood the needs and psychographics of today’s youth, towards whom these products are targeted, must have suggested these minor but high-impact marketing innovations. Similarly TISCO’s CSR programme, which essentially was a PR initiative born out of the need to build relationships with its employees as well as the government, has today resulted in TATA Group gaining preference over other powerful global bidders in its recent Corus and JLR deals.

This trend has not gone unnoticed. Consulting hot-shops are now beginning to mushroom across India and the world. Most large agencies are setting up dedicated strategy consulting units in-house to address this market need.

I strongly believe that the way forward for the PR business is to move into the first quadrant. That’s where, thanks to the high entry barriers raised by complex IP needs, both the margins as well as valuations game can be optimized. It reminds me of the key argument our Honourable Minister of Railways, Shri Lalu Prasad, put forward while presenting the now highly profitable Indian Railway budget.

‘I would not recommend increasing rail fares. On the contrary I would recommend reaching out to the aam aadmi by reducing prices across the board, in the process also helping to counter inflation.’

Welcome to the world of PR in the first quadrant. The question now is not ‘WHAT IF’ or ‘WHY’ but ‘WHEN’.

Bliss, Nirvana, Orgasm

It's been a really long time since I have written anything on my blog. The last time I wrote my life was in a load of flux, I did not know where I was going professionally, was going to enter fatherhood and was not sure what my finances would be like.

A lot has gone on since then, I have moved back to India and have a good sales and marketing job (as opposed to a pure PR job). My dreams of starting up something different and something on my own is slowly but steadily moving in the right direction. Have now kind-off finalized on the business model, met up with some prospective partners and think should be able to freeze everything within the next 6 months - 1 year.

On the home front Minal and I finally set up our little abode in Mumbai, have bought ourselves a nice small little car, nothing lavish but very homely and more importantly as per our taste.

However, the one development on the personal front that has really changed the entire equation for me and has honestly brought an immense amount of joy, pride, added sense of belonging is the coming along of our son on 28 March 08. You just have to see the look on both Minal and my faces when Evaan Aadi D'Rozario smiles or is fast asleep. We just cannot stop adoring him. He is so well behaved, so innocent that watching him is like pure unadulterated bliss, nirvana, an orgasm. I have never ever felt so at peace with myself and the world ever before.

Both Minal and me are currently enjoying our new status as parents, we are learning and unlearning a lot as each day goes by, getting newer perspectives along the way but more importantly it is with such pride that we both introduce our son. We have great hopes for him and are confident that he will definitely make his mark.

However, this brings us to an important decision that both Minal & I have taken with regards his upbringing. We are going to strive and make him as independent as possible, help him develop an intellect of his own, sans all the pre-conceived notions of society. This I guess will be our endeavour. This brings me to another very important decision that I have been battling with, i.e. of adopting a baby girl within a year to give Evaan company. The idea was born out of Minal's personal desire to share her love with one of the million orphaned children who are not so fortunate (please don't mistake this for some so called charitable cause, it is a genuine heart felt desire). Where I was always open to the idea and am in favour of the cause, I have also been thinking about the future of the child and what psychological effect that this entire exercise could have. But having thought about it for a couple of months now I feel that no matter whatever happens later on in life what could be worse than the current position of the kid as an orphan. One thing is for sure that during our lifetime we would be able to bring about a lot of happiness and joy for her. Also, her relationship with her brother will be driven by how we guide it. I think at the end of the day I am going to agree to Minal's request and adopt a baby girl. To tell you the truth both Minal and I want a daughter in the house and think this is also extremely important from Evaan's overall development point of view.

Anywayz I think I have written a bit too much now and more so I need to get going and go back home to my son. Will catch ya’ll later.

Cheers

Evaan Aadi D'Rozario